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Breeders Cup 2019 Betting Guide
Race 4 – Filly and Mare Sprint – Grade 1, 7 Furlongs
1 – Covfefe (2-1) comes in having won 2 in a row and 4 of her last 5. She is rarely tested, but has shown great ability to bear down when she has to. 4 – Come Dancing (5-2) ships in from New York with all work Javier Castellano keeping the mount after winning by 3 lengths in each of her last 2 starts. 6 – Bellafina (6-1) has struggled lately and all signs point to her best days being behind this once promising filly. 8 – Dawn the Destroyer (12-1) great name for an average mare. At long odds she is worth a show bet, but she is just not on the same level as the top contenders. 9 – Spiced Perfection (4-1) it may be pumpkin spice season but it is not this spicy filly’s race. She has a few quality wins against second level competition, but Javier leaving her for Come Dancing is all we need to know about the talent level of this filly.
Bets – Win 5 Exacta Box 1,4
Race 5 – Turf Sprint – Grade 1, 5 Furlongs
1 – Totally Boss (5-1) has won 2 straight and 4 of 5, but gets the Jockey change to Jose Ortiz for the first time and has never run in a grade 2 or 1 race. 2 – Pure Sensation (5-1) has won 4 of his last 5 races all by a length or more. 5 – Stubbins (12-1) comes in after posting a 102 speed figure in the grade 2 Woodford Stakes at Keenland. 6 – Stormy Liberal (8-1) won this race last year at 7-1, but has not won a race since. 10 – Eddie Haskell (9-2) finished 2ndtwice after running off a 3 race win streak this spring and summer. He has shown the ability to win from the lead or close. 11 – Om (15-1) once got the best of American Pharoah and is coming in off an allowance win.
Bets – Win 6,5 Exacta Box 1,5,10
Race 6 – Dirt Mile – Grade 1, 1 Mile
1 – Giant Expectations (12-1) trained by Peter Eurton who won the Juvenile at 45-1 on Friday. He has finished 2nd twice by a head or less and is peaking at the right time. 2 – Improbable (3-1) is the answer to the question of where Derby horses go when they just aren’t that good. 4 – Mr. Money (6-1) won 4 times in a row before losing by a neck to Math Wizard in the Pennsylvania Derby. His sire loved the Santa Anita surface and this will be his first try over it. 5 – Omaha Beach (8-5) was the best 3 year old in the country before an illness put him on the shelf before the Kentucky Derby. He comes in after winning his only prep race at 6 furlongs over the Santa Anita surface.
Bets – Win 5 WPS 1 Exacta Box 1,4,5 Daily Double5/2
Race 7 – Filly and Mare Turf – Grade 1, 1 ¼ Miles on the Turf
2 – Sistercharlie (8-5) is one of the best horses in the world. Ridden by the great Johnny V she has won an incredible 6 in a row and beaten great horses like Rushing Fall and ARavingBeauty. If her odds are close to even money she is a major play. 7 - Vasilika (8-1) is a talented hometown mare who is make a late run at wire.
Bets – Win 2 Daily Double 2/4,1
Race 8 – Sprint – Grade 1, 6 Furlongs
1 – Catalina Cruiser (4-1) the son of Union Rags has won 3 straight and is training exceptionally well. He has won at distance and over this surface and looks to stalk or get on the lead early so the inside post should not hurt him. 3 – Firenze Fire (12-1) is going to run his race and might finish in the money, but he won’t be competing for the win. 4 – Mitole (9-5) won 7 in a row before losing in the Vanderbilt to Imperial Hint. He bounced back nicely to win the Grade 1 Forego by 3 lengths and looks to be back to his dominate self. 6 – Shancelot (4-1) not against this field, not at these low of odds. 7 – Whitmore (15-1) can pop up and win a race here and there but with a monster like Mitole even at 15-1 he isn’t worth much a play if any at all. 9 – Imperial Hint (4-1) faces Mitole for the first time since beating him back in July. He has fired a bullet in 4 of his last 5 trainings and Javier Castellano is tough to beat in a big spot.
Bets – Exacta Box 1,4,9,3 Win 4
Race 9 – Breeder’s Cup Mile – Grade 1, 1 Mile on the Turf
2 – Lucullan (12-1) is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin and ridden by Luis Saez. He has won 3 of 4, but none at a grade 1 level. 5 – True Valour (20-1) shipped in from Ireland last summer and has won twice, most recently at Santa Anita going 1 mile or firm turf. 6 – Got Stormy (7-2) won the FourstarDave in August before losing to El Tormenta at Woodbine. He has posted triple digit speed figures in his last 4 races and likes to come from just off the lead. 8 – El Tormenta (12-1) has to be considered at 10-1 or higher. 9 -Circus Maximus (3-1) runs for the first time in the US, but is out of all world champion sire Galileo. 11 – Uni (7-2) this More Than Ready mare faces the boys again this time looking to improve on her 3rdplace finish in the FourStarDave.
Bets – Show 8,5,2 Tri Box 6,11,9
Race 10 – Breeders Cup Distaff – Grade 1, 1 1/8 Miles
1 – Paradise Woods (5-1) is a threat to win after winning the Zenyatta Stakes here at Santa Anita a month ago. She has posted triple digit speed figures twice in her career and is training well. 4 – Midnight Bisou (6-5) won her 7thrace in a row last time with Johnny on the mount for the first time. She switches back to Mike Smith and hopes to continue her dominant career as a great filly. 5 – Dunbar Road (6-1) had won 3 in a row before losing to Blue Prize in the Spinster Stakes earlier this month. 7 – Secret Spice (10-1) I already used my pumpkin spice joke so I’ll just stick to the facts with this game daughter of Discreet Cat. She is best at a mile and there is nothing to say she will enjoy the extra furlong and top competition in this race. 9 – Serengeti Empress (12-1) has had a really nice 3 year old season. She won the Kentucky Oaks, finished second in the Test and Acorn, but is not ready to compete or beat a champion like Midnight. 11 – Blue Prize (6-1) might be the only mare capable of challenging Midnight Bisou, but at less than 10-1 she is not worth the price.
Bets – Win 4 Exacta 4/1,11,5 Daily Double 4/9
Race 11 – Breeder’s Cup Turf – Grade 1, 1 ½ Miles on the Turf
5 – Anthony Van Dyck (3-1) ships in from Ireland seeking his first win and start on US soil. 9 - Bricks and Mortar (9-5) is an absolute steal at 9-5, it will hammer time if he is anywhere near even money come post time. He has won 6 in a row and is in great form heading into this career defining race. 10 – Old Persian (4-1) won his only start in North America at Woodbine after shipping in from Great Britain. 11 – Arklow (12-1) won last time out in the at Belmont going 1 ½ against a quality field. 12 – Channel Maker (10-1) has a nose for the wire and hasn’t been worse than 4th in any of his last 6 races.
Bets – Win 9 Exacta Box 9,10,12
Race 12 – Breeder’s Cup Classic – Grade 1, 1 ¼ Miles
1 – Math Wizard (30-1) I wish I could tell you how much I think Math Wizard sucks. A lucky win in the Pennsylvania Derby bought his entry to the Classic and as much as he doesn’t belong in this field here he is. 3 – Owendale (15-1) is a lot like Math Wizard only with some talent. He is hear by virtue of a win over a terrible Oklahoma Derby field. 4 – War of Will (20-1) the fact that this horse won the Preakness is the best example of just how weak this year’s 3 year olds are. 5 – Yoshida (8-1) has the talent to win any race he is entered in, the question is whether or not he’ll get the trip he needs. Bill Mott switches to Big Race Mike Smith hoping to get the perfect ride for this top horse. 6 – Elate (6-1) after being run out of the female division by Midnight Bisou she takes on the boys for the first time. 6-1 is a little low, but she is a mare to consider if her price increases at all. 8 – McKinzie (3-1) is about as a luck warm favorite as there can possibly be. 10 – Vino Rosso (4-1) comes in off a disqualified win over Code of Honor in the Jockey Club Gold. He won here going 10 furlongs in May. 11 – Code of Honor (4-1) is the leading colt to win best 3 year old. He has won 3 in a row and has shown toughness and guts in each of his starts.
Bets – WS 11,5,6 (if odds rise) Exacta Box, 6,8,11