MLB 2019 Over/Under Spectacular
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Red Sox OVER 94.5 – Yes, the number is high for the defending world champs and yes there are legitimate questions about their bullpen (or lack of one), but teams with a strong core of young players like the Red Sox don’t regress 12 games in one year. Betts, Bogaerts, Benintendi, and JD Martinez are all back and are all healthy. If they even come close to their 2018 numbers, this team will have no problem covering the number. - LOSS, the number was never in question and the Red Sox failed to make the playoffs after winning it all last year
Yankees UNDER 96.5 – It is almost impossible to reasonably expect any team to win 97 games in a year. The Yankee number is mostly generated by the legion of delusional fans that make up their fan base. With 2 fifths of their starting rotation, which is already one of the weakest of any “top team” out to start the season you can expect the Yankees to out of the running to cover their number before Memorial Day. - LOSS, the Yankees had this number covered with 2 weeks left in September
Tampa Bay UNDER 84.5 – The Rays had a tremendous year last year winning 90 games in the toughest division in baseball but repeating that feat with loss of CJ Cron and the fear of Blake Snell missing time again seems like a long shot. - LOSS, The Rays beat their number by more than 10 games, a great season for a franchise that is doing things the right way
Toronto OVER 74.5 – Their starting 5 will be their strength in 2019. Marcus Stroman anchors a young talented rotation that features new additions Clayton Richard and Matt Shoemaker who should have the Blue Jays near .500 all season. - LOSS, the key additions of talented young rookies did not produce wins, but did produce hope for the furture.
Baltimore UNDER 59.5 – Picking a team to win 58 games or less in a season is just reckless. But that is exactly what we are doing and in our expert’s opinion it seems to be what the front office is doing too. - WIN, Baltimore was terrible from start to finish, easy win
Cleveland OVER 90.5 – This pick is entirely based on how poor the Central is this year. Outside of the Twins the rest of the division is expected win 74 games or fewer. Cleveland retained all their pitchers this off season and the management looks to be committed to one final push for this group.
Chicago White Sox UNDER 74.5 – After winning a paltry 62 games last year and failing to secure Manny Machado the hopes of the South Siders can’t be too high. The roster is a bunch of no names and when Yonder Alonso is penciled in as your everyday DH you know you’re in trouble.
Minnesota UNDER 84.5 – The Twins went out and added Ray’s slugger CJ Cron and future Hall of Famer Nelson Cruz. Their rotation is anchors by one of the brightest young starters Jose Berrios, but with defensive liabilities like Sano and Schoop in key positions the Twins will struggle to find consistency.
Kansas City OVER 69.5 – Since back to back World Series appearances and winning in 2015 the Royals have gone back to baseball nowhere. While they won’t compete for anything this year their team is too talented and should be improving as the season winds down so picking up some cheap wins in September will put them over the 70-win mark.
Detroit UNDER 68.5 – The Tigers narrowly missed a 100-loss season in 2018, don’t expect that to happen again in 2019. Detroit is utterly devoid of talent and excitement. They will be playing out the stretch by the middle of May and their nonexistent attendance will show it.
Seattle OVER 71.5 – As an 89 win in 2018 they were competing for a Wild Card spot during the final few weeks of the season. They traded away Robinson Cano and All-Star closer Edwin Diaz which will certainly hurt, but Dee Gordon is an All Star in his own right and second year players like Mitch Haniger should improve off a very good rookie campaign.
Angels OVER 82.5 – Yes, the Angels continue to waste the best years of Mike Trout, who is without a doubt the best player to come around since Mickey Mantle. The Angels are talented in the outfield with Trout, Otani, Upton, and Calhoun. If their pitching staff which features Skaggs, Heaney, and revitalized Matt Harvey can just stay healthy this team should compete for a Wild Card.
Houston UNDER 96.5 – The Astros are still one of 3 best teams in baseball, but the loss of Marwin Gonzalez combined with the age of Justin Verlander will account for a decline from the 103 wins in 2018.
Texas UNDER 71 – Has there ever been less buzz around a team then there is around the Texas Rangers? It is as if this team ceased to exist after going to back to world series in 2007 and 2008. They won 67 games last year and honestly that was probably more than they should have.
Oakland OVER 83.4 – If there are kings of out performing expectations without ever accomplishing anything then it is the Oakland A’s under the “leadership” of Billy Beane. They won an amazing 97 games last year after being projected to win total of just 77 (per Baseball Prospectus). But once again they failed to advance in October, which is what the A’s do.
Washington UNDER 88.5 – The NL East is a division that features 4 teams all projected to win 85+ games. Washington lost fan favorite and first son Bryce Harper. His production is very replaceable even if his hype is not. Gio Gonzalez’ departure will hurt the Nats more than they think. Quality 5th starters are not easy to come by, especially ones who dominate within their division like Gio did. He was 10-4, 15-6, and 11-7 against the Marlins, Mets, and Phillies.
Atlanta UNDER 86.5 – Ronald Acuna Jr is one of the leagues best players. He will lead this team along with veteran Freddie Freeman, but their late season struggles in 2018 are cause for concern. Their rotation has already been compromised by the injury to Mike Foltynewicz.
Philadelphia UNDER 89.5 – The Phillies won the Bryce Harper sweepstakes and it couldn’t have happened to a better team. Philadelphia put together a talented team this off season, but Bryce has always been more hype than production and even with the friendly dimensions of Citizens Bank Park Harper will struggle to earn his 25 million a year. The competitiveness of the division will make it difficult for any team to win 90+ games this season. The Phillies will be a good team, but 90 is just a bit high.
Mets OVER 85.5 – The Mets will feature the leagues best starting rotation in 2019. They are led by all world pitcher Jake deGrom who finally put it all together and recorded one of the best seasons baseball has ever seen. Michael Conforto will have to build on his late season success if the Mets hope to win the division, but the additions of Pete Alonso, Jed Lowrie, and Wilson Ramos should be enough to keep this offense competitive.
Miami UNDER 63.5 – Is its possible Derek Jeter has no idea what he is doing in south Florida? He took over a baseball team that was a pitcher or two away from being a playoff team and in two years made them completely unwatchable and uncompetitive. Miami has no pitching, no talent, and no hope in this tough NL East.
Chicago Cubs OVER 88.5 – The Cubs are perhaps the easiest OVER of 2019. They are still stacked with young talent, many of whom are coming into their primes. Bryant, Rizzo, Schwarber, and Javy Baez are all capable of winning an MVP. The starting staff doesn’t have a number 1, but it is basically made up of 5 number 3’s.
Milwaukee OVER 86.5 – The Brewers struck gold last year with MVP Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. Josh Hader proved to be one of the best relivers in all of baseball. Repeating those epic years will be tough, but with a down years expected out of the Pirates it just might be time for Milwaukee to rise to the top once again.
Cardinals UNDER 88.5 – It is almost sacrilegious to pick against St. Louis, but that is just what our experts have instructed us to do. The addition of Paul Goldschmidt is a really nice add and Miles Mikolas anchoring a deep staff will keep the Cardinals toward the top of the division all year, but 90 wins is a lot and the depth of the division might keep any team not named the Cubs from winning that many.
Reds UNDER 79 – The Reds added a lot of mid-tier talent this off season. They won a surprising 67 games last year after being picked by pretty much everyone to lose 100. Joey Votto continues to put together a Hall of Fame career, but it won’t be enough for Cincinnati to eclipse the .500 mark.
Pittsburgh UNDER 77.5 – The Pirates finished over .500 for the first-time last year since 2015. They have question marks all over the diamond and one-dimensional players like Gregor Polanco and Josh Bell. Their starting staff is a collection of oft injured pitchers with mediocre talent at best.
Dodgers UNDER 93.5 – Los Angeles is still one of front runners to win the West, but questions remain concerning Kershaw’s health. Manny Machado leaving for San Diego hurts a Dodger offense that needs at least one consistent bat to go along with the all or nothing Joc Pederson and Cody Bellinger.
Colorado OVER 84.5 – The Rockies have one of the toughest numbers in all of baseball. They won 91 games last year and have an offense that can beat anyone. Arenado signed an extension to become the highest paid player in MLB history, while Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon continue to produce at All Star levels. David Murphy adds a veteran presence in the locker room and should enjoy the deep alleys in Coors Field.
San Francisco UNDER 73.5 – The Giants are falling on hard times. Injuries submarined any hopes of successful season in 2018, in which they won an abysmal 73 games. This year looks to be a repeat of last year on with Bumgardner probably departing at the trade deadline.
San Diego UNDER 78.5 – The Padres went out and signed Manny Machado to a 10 year 300-million-dollar deal and then expect everyone to feel like they will not be good. They won 66 games last year and still feature a starting staff with names like Lucchesi, Laure, Paddack, and Nix. If you’re not familiar with any of those names don’t worry, neither are most people. Expect the Padres to be in the 72-win range and expect them to be shopping Manny by the 2020 All Star break.
Arizona UNDER 75.5 – Zach Greinke, Zach Godley, and Robbie Ray lead an Arizona team that just traded away their best player in Paul Goldschmidt. While the Diamondbacks won’t be terrible, we expect them to deal off more of their talent as the season moves into July, which will be losing at a prodigious rate in August and September.