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2019 NCAA Preview

  

 The 2019 College Football Season is finally here! Our have been diving deep into stats and analytics tob bring rundowns of each conference. We are giving you exactly what you want to know, who’s going to the playoff, and who your 2019 Heisman Trophy winner will be!


Most importantly, we will give you 10 futures that are as close to locks as you can possibly get. Last year, one of our best known and most trusted CFB experts Chaddy Vegas gave you 80% winners on his future win totals, gave you Clemson as the National Champion, and picked 3 out of 4 playoff teams. Let’s get rich in 2019!


ACC Conference


We told you last year this would be a cake walk for Clemson, and it was. Expect no different this year. I wouldn’t advise anyone with value as a long shot. The way the schedule sets up for Clemson to where, aside from an incredible rash of injuries I see no potential scenario Clemson doesn’t win the division. Furthermore, I can’t see a team in the coastal division that wouldn’t be a 3 touchdown dog in the ACC title game. What might be in question, is if winning the ACC will be enough to make the CFB playoff should they have a stumble or two. They have Texas A&M and South Carolina in out of conference games. They’re more likely to lose either of those games than anything on the conference slate. Combine in a loss in one of those games with a shocking stumble in the conference slate, you could see defending CFP playoff champion left out even if they win the ACC. I won’t spend as much time discussing the rest of the conference, because truth be told I’m not sure I see another team in the conference even worthy of a top 25 ranking.


Virginia Tech o8 -150

Lay the price here, it’s a lock to at least push. Justin Fuentes is in his 4th year with his system, they return senior QB Ryan Willis, they somehow managed to schedule THREE FCS (1-AA) programs in OOC and they avoid Clemson in the ACC slate. That all adds up to a breakout year. I have VT penciled in for 10 wins, this bet will cruise.


Syracuse over 7.5 -155

Yes, I know this is a big price. But similar to our VaTech pick Syracuse has two FCS schools on the OOC slate and goes to Big Ten bottom feeder Maryland and get Western Michigan at home. They’ll win those 4 and would only need to go .500 in a down ACC to cover this. 


Big Ten


The Big Ten has a parity problem. The conference is so deep nobody can ever come out unscathed and it’s cost them shots a national championships. While Alabama, Clemson and Oklahoma have dominated their conferences year in and year out and put themselves in the CFP consistently. I don’t think this year 

is any different, and I’m predicting the Big Ten will be left out of the playoff for a 4th consecutive year. I don’t buy the Michigan hype. Many people are putting them in the playoff and winning the Big Ten. I’ve seen no evidence to suggest they’re capable of making that kind of jump. Yes, they return a senior QB, and yes Urban Meyer is gone from Ohio State, but that doesn’t change the fact this program has been offensively challenged since Harbaugh took over, and they lost half of that loaded defense from last season. Michigan will be good, but they won’t be contending for a national championship in my opinion. Ohio State is loaded as always, but you’re crazy if you don’t think Urban Meyer stepping down doesn’t hurt them, and Dwayne Haskins leaving early was a killer. Justin Fields is severely over-hyped, and going to the aforementioned Michigan will be tough. OSU will be very good again, but they will not be hoisting the CFP trophy in January. Big ten will be deep, VERY deep. I believe they have 9 to 10 teams in top 25 range, but because of the depth of conference, and the lack of a truly elite team, they will once again be left out of the CFP.


Michigan State Under 8 +130

We told you Michigan State was overrated last year, gave you the under last year, and we cashed EASILY. Similar to Michigan, I do not understand the Michigan State love at all. They were flat out fortunate to beat Utah State and Penn State last year, or they would have been 5-7. Brian Lewerke returns at QB as a senior, but has he ever really been consistently effective? They’re offensively anemic, there is just no other way to put it. They finished 125th in the country in scoring offense. Yes, the defense is fantastic, but in the current football landscape you cannot consistently compete for conference titles just playing great defense. I think this could be a push, but getting odds on this makes it a must bet. 


Penn State o8.5 -110

PSU has a favorable OOC slate, and I think the public and odds makers are underrating them because of the loss of Miles Sanders and Trace McSorley. They return one of the top defenses in the country, and Sean Clifford is a highly touted prospect at QB who’s been in the system for 2 years. He performed extremely well in limited duty last year, he will step in and play well, particularly considering they have an easy start to the schedule. As far as the loss of Sanders, Penn State has a stable of top ranked recruits waiting in the wings, including the number 1 overall RB in the class of 2018 who played very well as a freshman, Ricky Slade. Expect him to be an All Big Ten back this year and Penn State to win 10 games.


Big 12


The idea that Jalen Hurts is going to come in and fill the shoes of Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray in this offense is fools gold. Hurts was never a great passer, and this offense will be more complicated then he dealt with at Alabama. There’s still a good chance Oklahoma wins the big 12 because of their talent surrounding him, but they will struggle at times with Hurts. Texas is still not there. The win against Georgia in the sugar bowl was a good one, but let’s face it, that was an uninspired team disappointed they missed the playoff. Texas still struggled at times last year and I’m really not buying them as a playoff contender either. While I certainly think there is a possibility one of those two programs win the Big 12, I think there’s a ton of value in some other teams. Iowa State at +1200 and TCU at +1800 are extremely live dogs at a fantastic price.


TCU o7.5 -115

TCU ended the season winning 4 out of 5. They are absolutely loaded with skilled position talent and return 4 of 5 starters on the offensive line. An easy early schedule to break in a new QB along with a traditionally strong defensive staff will set the Horned Frogs up for a fine season.


Iowa State o8 -120

Matt Campbell is arguably the best coach in the conference, and Brock Purdy is poised to follow up an excellent freshman campaign. This team returns 14 starters and gets Texas, TCU and Oklahoma State at home. I think this team is a legitimate contender to end up in the Big 12 title game come December.


Pac 12


This is a very strange year for the Pac 12. Washington is still the favorite in my eyes, but they have questions at QB with Georgia Transfer Jacob Eason taking over under center. When a highly touted QB gets beaten out at his previous school only to transfer to another power 5, it’s traditionally not a recipe for success. This move concerns me for the huskies. On the other hand, many are touting Oregon as the favorite. Mostly due to the fact they have QB Justin Herbert returning. I disagree with this assessment. I think Herbert is overrated, and they’ve done nothing to show they can hang with the big boys in the conference consistently since Marcus Mariotta left in 2014. To me the team to beat is Utah. They have one of the best home field advantages in the conference, they return their a ton on offense including senior dual Threat QB Tyler Huntley. Look for Utah to stamp a ticket to Pasadena.


UCLA o6.5

After being fired from two NFL gigs, and a terrible start to his return to the Pac 12 last year, it’s safe to say the luster is off Chip Kelly. This is why I love this bet. Chip Kelly didn’t forget how to coach, he needed a year and might need a second one to get the Bruins program where he wants, but expect a shot in the arm to that program this year. Look for the bruins to comfortably get to 7 or 8 wins this year and look for a breakout 2020.


Oregon State o2.5
The beavers have been an absolute doormat and one of the worst power 5 conference teams for several years now. Jonathan Smith, former OSU QB who lead the Beavers to their best season in school history and a fiesta bowl victory in 2000 took over the reigns last year, and despite only winning 2 games the team showed vast improvement on his watch. They were very competitive, particularly in the first half of games against incredibly stiff competition. Look for Smith to continue their improvement on offense and steal 3 or 4 games on this years schedule.


SEC


While Alabama still clearly reigns supreme in the SEC, we’re beginning to see the SEC become more and more like the Big Ten in the way of parody and depth. Some strong coaching hires the last 3 years by Georgia, Texas A&M and Florida have risen the level of competition, and Ed Orgeron has seemingly righted the ship in Baton Rouge. I still think Alabama wins the West, and Georgia wins the east, but they will face significant tests on both sides. I’m very curious to see how Tua handles his poor performance in the NC game, and if he has a hangover going into next year.


Texas A&M over 7.5 -120

Texas A&M didn’t lack talent under Kevin Sumlin, he simply lost control of the program. This was a perfect spot for Jimbo Fisher to step into and they closed out last year with fantastic momentum. They return QB Kellen Mond and fisher in my opinion is poised to take the Aggies to the next tier in the SEC. Look for the Aggies to win 9 this year.


Missouri u8.5 -115

If you haven’t picked up on my theme yet, I’m not a huge fan of transfer QBs. Kelly Bryant was beat out by a true freshman, and after spending 8 months in a new system has high expectations. Part of this number is factoring in they have an incredibly weak schedule. But I cannot see them competing with Georgia, or Florida so you’re not far off from an under just with those two games. Don’t take the bait folks, Kelly Bryant will be as mediocre at Missouri as he was at Clemson.


Playoff Picks- Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Utah

Other teams to consider- Ohio State, Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas, Washington


2019-20 National Champion- Georgia (6-1)


Heisman Trophy Winner- Trevor Lawrence +275