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2021 NFL Over/Under Spectacular
Top Ten Picks
Dolphins OVER 8.5
Patriots OVER 9.5
Ravens UNDER 11
Browns UNDER 10.5
Titans OVER 9
Chiefs OVER 12.5
Giants UNDER 7
Packers OVER 10
Falcons UNDER 7.5
Eagles OVER 6.5
Bills over 11 - Josh Allen is a legitimate MVP candidate and Sean McDermott has proven himself to be a top coach in this league. The Bills have all the markings a team that will dominate in the regular season so 11 wins in the new 17 game schedule should be readily attainable.
Jets under 6 - Zach Wilson and new look Jets will have to take considerable strides forward just to be competitive in a much-improved AFC East from last season. We expect Rober Salah to put a well-coached team on the field, but 7 wins is more than a little steep considering just how bare the cupboard was when he took over.
Dolphins over 8.5 - The Dolphins surprised the world last year when they went out and won 10 games behind Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tua Tagovailoa. Coach Brain Flores has pushed the right buttons for two years now and we don’t expect him to misfire now entering his third year at the helm. Of course, this is the first season where there are real expectations on him and his young, but talented team so we will see how they respond to the pressure.
Patriots over 9.5 - Last season Bill Belichik and the New England Patriots suffered their first losing season since 2000. This year they head into the season with rookie quarterback Mac Jones and a rebuilt roster that includes 9 new starters.
Ravens under 11 - We have never been true believers in Lamar Jackson being a top tier talent and after another post season disappoint, we feel even more vindicated. That being said he is a tremendous talent, but the league doesn’t stay static for long and it was only a matter of time until coaches caught on to how to limit his athleticism.
Bengals over 6.5 - This is one of those numbers that Vegas nailed. A healthy Joe Burrow should keep the Bengals in the playoff picture all year, but he is less than a year removed from a devastating knee injury and how healthy he is, is anyone’s guess, including Mr. Burrow himself.
Browns under 10.5 - The Browns have been a disappointment for a long time and this season will be no different. They can add all the “talent” they want, but there is just a systematic flaw that prevents them from putting it all together. A by systematic flaw, we mean the overpriced and under talented cry baby Odell Beckham along with Baker Mayfield who if he was in the right system could be a productive quarterback, but sadly the organization has continued to put him in the wrong the position.
Steelers over 8.5 - Yes Big Ben is another year older and yes ownership and the front office have neglected to add talent to an aging roster, but Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season and until he does, we won’t be betting on him failing at anything let alone winning football games.
Colts under 9 - The Colts had an excellent 2020 season under the future hall of famer Phillip Rivers. With his departure and Carson Wentz’ arrival the quarterback position has taken a huge step backward. Head Coach Frank Reich will have his hands full trying to keep the oft injured qb on the field and productive while on it.
Jaguars over 6.5 - Urban Meyer finally enters the NFL coaching ranks and will have the good fortune of having a can’t miss rookie under center. Smartly he has opted for Trevor Lawrence to start from day one and learn on the job. The Jags were competitive last season even while amassing just 1 win. Do we expect them to win 10 games, no, but we do expect them to be a tough team the whole year through.
Texans under 4 - Nothing and we mean nothing kills a NFL season faster than a quarterback controversy and the Texans have the king of all QB controversies. Deshaun Watson when not paying for “massages” was busy crying about wanting a trade and vowing to never play for the Texans again, but here is, and here they are with journeyman Tyrod Taylor under center.
Titans over 9 - The Titans have had 5 straight winning seasons and last year won an impressive 11 games under Mike Vrabel before losing in the AFC Championship to the Chiefs. Ryan Tannehill has turned into a trusted quarterback with a knack for spreading the ball around to his bevy of talented playmakers. Derrick Henry is coming on an Offensive Player of the Year award and A.J Brown has blossomed into one of the best deep threats in the league.
Chiefs over 12.5 - If anyone thinks the regular season win machine known as Andy Ried is not going to win at least 13 games in a 17 game season than that person hasn’t been paying attention to the NFL for the last 20+ years. Pat Mahommes is simply the best player in the league and Tyreek Hill is an established superstar. They question is not whether the Chiefs will win 13 games this year, it is simply what will happen first, their 13th win or their first loss?
Broncos over 8.5 - The Broncos added Tedy Bridgewater who when last seen was leading the Carolina Panthers to 5-11 season. Despite their abysmal record the Panters were in most of their games and the Bronco’s roster is much deeper than the Panther’s was last year. This is one of the tightest numbers on the board so we don’t expect Denver to compete for the playoffs, but we do expect them to a quality team week in and week out.
Raiders under 7 - The Raiders are a lot like the Browns. There is just an institutional rot that prevents them from being a good team. Jon Gruden has yet to prove that he can lead a winner since his Superbowl win in 2002. Derek Carr is a nice player, but that is about it. In the right situation or with the right coach he might be a winning player, but he is neither in the right situation nor does he have the right coach.
Chargers over 9.5 - Last season the Chargers won 7 games despite being led by Anthony Lynn who was positively the worst coach in the league not named Adam Gace. Justin Herbert is a true stud and with additions to the O-line through the draft we only expect his ceiling to move even higher.
Cowboys over 9 - Can the Cowboys win 10 games? The answer should be a resounding yes, but the health of Dak Prescott remains in question. They best argument for their success lies in the failures of the Giants, WFT, and Eagles to present a real challenge.
Giants under 7 - Why anyone would think that Mr. Fumbles Daniel Jones is going to “take a big step forward” is beyond us. He has proven time and time again that not only can he not hold onto the ball, but he actually does, not much good comes of it. Add in questions on “the future hall of famer” Saquon Barkley and try hard loser Head Coach in Joe Judge and the Giants have all the making of the worst team in football, which is exactly what they have been since 2017.
Eagles over 6.5 - Believe it or not we are fans of Jalen Hurts and this scrappy Eagle team. In no way do we think the Eagles are contenders to make a deep run in the playoffs but in what was a historically bad division last year we do expect them to win at least 7 games.
WFT under 8.5 - The Washington Football team won the division last year with 7 wins and virtually no quarterback. This season the enter the year with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm and expectations are out of control. We have heard everything from Division winner to true Superbowl contender. The truth is Fitzpatrick can be an alright place holder, but has never been a playoff qb.
Bears under 7.5 - Justin Fields is just not the answer to the never-ending quarterback question in Chicago. The Bears will win some games with Andy Dalton starting but how long will that last with a franchise that has never shown the ability to be patient. Their defense is stout and will keep them in games, but the division is tough and will ultimately prove to be too much for their beleaguered offense.
Packers over 10 - Aaron Rodgers makes his return after one of the weirdest off seasons in recent memory. The Packers problems still remain, namely a lagging running game and limited talent on defense, but the reigning M VP has proven time and time again that his talent alone can overcome the team’s shortcomings.
Lions under 4.5 - The Lions are in total rebuild mode and Jared Goff who struggled with loads of talent in LA will have his less than capable hands full with a bare cupboard in Detroit. New Head Coach Caveman Dan Campbell may want his team to bite the kneecaps off their opponents, but we can’t imagine them being anywhere near close enough to their opponents to even get a nibble.
Vikings over 9 - Mike Zimmer and the Vikings always put a quality team on the field. Kirk Cousins is the very definition of serviceable, but in a division that features only one team that is of any quality at all we expect the Vikings to make the best of their situation and grab some easy wins in division.
Falcons under 7.5 - The Falcons have yet to recover from their Superbowl collapse in 2017. Ownership has hopes that the addition of Arthur Smith as their new Head Coach will changes their fortunes, but Matty Ice still under center remains a key problem.
Panthers under 7.5 - NFL insiders love Matt Rhule. Matt Rhule won 5 games in a lousy division last year with an unarguably better quarterback than he has this year (Bridgewater vs Darnold). The only factor working in the over’s favor is the division is expecting to regress with Jameis Winston taking over for Drew Brees. While we are not emphatic about our pick we do expect Sam Darnold to continue to stink and for the Panthers to be searching for a new starting QB by week 8.
Buccaneers over 12 - All Tom Brady does is win Superbowls and dominate the NFL. At some point this ageless wonder will decline, but it won’t be this year and it won’t be with this team filled with talent all around him, Godwin, Evans, Fournette, and many more.
Saints over 9 - Sean Payton and the Saints are a winning organization. Yes, Jameis Winston is a turnover machine, but we expect Sean to find a way to harness his talent while limiting his mistakes or at least his opportunities to make them. Taysom Hill will play a large role in the Saints success this season and we for one are looking forward to watching all season long.
Cardinals under 8.5 - Kyler Murray has proven to be a competent qb in the league and Kliff
Kingsbury has shown the ability to win games with limited talent. The question about the Cardinals season is really how good the Matt Stafford led Rams and 49ers will be. This is a tough number and we fully expect the boys in the desert to be near 500 at the end of the year.
Rams under 10.5 - In what is no doubt one of the toughest numbers of the year the Rams face the difficult task of having to play in the NFC West. In almost any other division we would be pounding the OVER, but against the likes of the Seahawks, 49ers, and Cardinals we are a bit more cautious.
49ers under 10.5 - The 49ers are going to start Jimmy G and let Trey Lance “learn” on the bench. How long can that last if Jimmy G falters at all or in the more likely scenario he gets hurt (like he always does)? As we have said in the past and will continue to say now, Quarterback controversies kill seasons and this 49er team has all the markings of a qb controversy already in progress.
Seahawks over 10 - Whether or not the fame hound drama queen Russell Wilson is happy is realistically inconsequential. Pete Carroll knows how to get the most out of his teams and the Home Field advantage in Seattle is as large as there is in the league.